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The Promise of Crowdsourcing

Today I came across the work of Mike Krieger and Yan Yan Wang at Stanford's HCI Lab in which they studied the efficacy of certain online brainstorming techniques.  Their research focused on comparison of idea generation tools to see if, through tool adaptations, it was possible to increase participation in expanding and improving ideas while overcoming the problems of too many ideas, not enough idea collaboration that are typical of brainstorming on discussion forums.  Part of their research revealed some great lessons from crowd sourcing endeavors on the Internet which Mike has shared in these slides posted on Slideshare.

The most valuable, and I think uniquely insightful advice he gives are the 9 guidelines for successful crowd sourcing online:

  1. When diversity matters
  2. Small chunks/ delegate-able actions
  3. Easy verification
  4. Fun activity, or hidden ambition
  5. Better than computers at performing a task
  6. Learn from hacks, mods, re-use from crowd
  7. Enable novel knowledge discovery 
  8. Maintain vision & design consistency
  9. Not just about lower costs
I see these tips as not only useful to the aspiring wiki-ist, but also to users of Mechanical Turk, which happens to be a tool that was instrumental in their Ideas2Ideas study.  I'm looking forward to applying these guidelines and the design principles behind Ideas2Ideas to future crowd sourcing endeavors.

Our New Open Source President

CNN ran a post election panel featuring Republican consultant Alex Costellano on Thursday who hinted we may be blessed with an open source presidency come January. Citing Obama's deference to the American public by admitting "I need your help," Costellano extrapolated that this is an unprecedent gesture to involve the people on making policy, opensource-stylie. Costellano rationalized his interpretation of the president elect's statement by effectively contrasting Microsoft's "worship in our church, or else," approach to software with Obama's apparent participation age bias. Nice! Bravo! Bring it!

A Process of Pure Alchemy

My father worked in finance until he retired in 1986.  Except for a few youthful diversions into things like diamond prospecting and night club management, his career was devoted to leasing, beginning as a repossessor (I love to tell people I am the son of a repo man,) and culminating as president of the leasing subsidiary of Investors Diversified Services (IDS).  IDS Leasing was eventually acquired by The Equitable.   

As I read a Thursday piece on FT.com by Sam Jones entitled When junk was gold I thought about how  much the credit world has changed since my dad left the finance business more Ft-logothan 20 years ago.  His business relied upon the ratings agencies that are disected in this article, as did thousands of other businesses right up until three weeks ago when Moody's, S&P and Fitch ratings suddenly lost their meaning.  

For a subscription fee, IDS Leasing had access to the professional ratings of Moody's, which earned all its revenue through a subscription service to investors.  His business, and other firms in the business of credit, did not view the dependence on ratings agencies as a risk to their own business.  Afterall, Moody's were experts at identifying risk to investors.  A much greater exposure to a leasing company would be to forego the use of ratings in their decision making, and instead tackle the research themselves.  The ratings services epitomized capitalistic efficiency.  Businesses were not circumspect of ratings because the ratings agencies worked hard to avoid conflict of interest and brands like Moody's were nothing if not trustworthy. 

Then, in the early nineties, "structured finance" arrived on the investment scene, launching an arms race of increasingly complex financial instruments that burdened the ratings companies to the point of abandoning thorough research, and impelling them to accept fees from bond issuers as they struggled to maintain their preeminence over the measurement of investment risk.  This led to billion dollar deals rated in just hours and situations like Enron receiving investment-grade ratings just a month before its collapse.  As my dad puts it, "The ratings guys were asleep at the wheel." 

We are now at a point in history when trust in vaunted institutions like Moody's has been decimated and confidence in markets has slipped dramatically.  From the rubble, I expect, new ratings systems will rise.  Whether these ratings systems will be more like the old ones based on profit driven entities familiar to my dad's generation of investors, or new systems deriving from networks of people acting as stewards of investment is yet to be determined.  I suspect that the world of finance is not ready for a social-network based ratings system, but I also believe we're only a small number of financial crises away from the power of organized crowds overtaking institutions as the dominant source of risk analysis.

iPhone iWant

Finally installed Typepad on my iPhone. That makes one less excuse to not post over here on Downstream more often. But what would really turn me into a mobile blogging maniac is an app that can translate this photo into a UPC. Next time I blow out candles that's what I'm wishing for. iPhone iWant

The Rise of Collaborative Culture

No sooner had we put the wrap on an April 9 Commonwealth Club panel interview on Collaborating for Change, than PBS announced a really cool collaborative project on Nova to design the "Car of the Future".   Both of these recent productions focus on the application of open source design to social and economic needs beyond software.  The promise of open source economics is popping up everywhere.  It must be something in the water, (or the atmosphere).   Network based open source design efforts have been written about before, and there's more than a few established non-software open source design projects, but they were hardly regarded as mainstream.  And open source as a business model has been a fringe enterprise.  But all that is changing.

The upcoming Nova special, and the Commonwealth Club interview (with Amy Novogratz, Kate Stohr, Maria Giudice, and myself (video courtesy fora.tv)) serve as proof points that this phenomena has exceeded meme status and is spilling over into the broader socioeconomic graph.   But we knew this was inevitable, right?  We just needed the right conditions for humanity's collaborative tendency to come out of the proprietary deep freeze.

The substrate upon which this new culture is rising pairs flexible licensing models a'la Creative Commons with accessible technology for building collaborative online communities a'la Drupal and WordpressYahoo!groups and PBWiki.  Among the catalysts for this reaction are frustration over obscene economic inequities around the world, abuses of people and planet for profit, and utter neglect by federal governments.  As was discussed here in the video interview about the Open Architecture Network, these frustrations can be overcome by collaborating for change on the net.

Need more proof of the trend toward an open source economy?  Just check with the folks at Open Everything.  They're tracking numerous open collaboratives, which are exogenous to  the software world, but infused with many of the same principles, practices and tools as open source software projects. 

One of the most prominent tools applied to these new collaboratives is Drupal, and we discuss it's role in the Open Architecture Network in the video (at :37:30, :46:30, and :51:00).

Ten years ago who would have imagined that:

Yet these, and plenty of other examples show that collaborative culture is on the rise.  Does this signal the next generation economy in which businesses profit less from market lockout and legal protection and more from direct value delivered in open markets?  Or does it lead to a more fundamental shift wherein socioeconomic prosperity derives less through commerce than through collaborations for which the primary incentive to contribute is sociocentric good? 

CommunityNext - It's A Widget World

Communitynext_noah_2

The second CommunityNext conference, held at the Plug And Play tech center in Sunnyvale today, is focused on viral marketing. The take away from the event: widgets=viral. And Facebook is the api to write them for.

Pictured here is Noah Kagan, CommunityNext organizer.

More on the event when I have a keyboard bigger than my Treo in front of me.

Barcodes are everywhere

Consumer level devices and software for scanning and looking up UPC numbers are springing up here and there, but are by no means in wide scale use.  I started using Intelliscanner's combo scanner fob and cataloging software after picking it up at MacWorld last winter, and more recently tested the Mac only application Delicious Monster, which was in the shwag bag from the TED conference.
They both do a great job of scanning and cataloging subsets of consumer products.  Both handle books, CDs and DVDs.

Intelliscan also tries to handle certain grocery items too, with it's Kitchen Companion module.  It's fob scanner, an OEM from Symbol, stores 150 codes - more items than any typical consumer buys in one outing.

Delicious Monster uses the Mac's iSight to scan UPC's, and has a nice cataloging interface that allows for easy annotations.

Barcode-Blessed Unrest

The blurry snapshot on this post was taken w/ my Treo's 700p 1.3 Megapixel camera, which explains why "scanning" with it is not quite ready for prime time - I have not been able to get Treoware's app, Barcode/13 to correctly scan a UPC label.

 

It's surprising to me that the popularity of these products has not skyrocketed, but maybe that fact is a reflection of consumer attitudes, which do not place much value on organizing information about our purchases.  What features are needed in these valuable consumer tools in order to make them more compelling?

The Robin Hood in All of Us

A study at UCSD found that students exhibit "Robin Hood" like behavior in a game designed to determine if we have a tendency to cooperate toward equality.  The findings really beg the question, if we are  egalitarian beings, which the study seems to suggest, why do we tolerate so much inequality?  If we're genuinely interested in distributing wealth, then why are we not dropping coins into every mendicant's open hand?

The study found that a player's choice to increase another player's wealth was made when there was disparity among participants and the player could spend their own money to enrich those with the least, most often spending to "take from the rich and give to the poor".

The experiment seems to suggest that the presence of a mechanism that allows one person to take from someone with more wealth elicits the "Robin Hood" behavior.  When that condition is satisfied then participants are also more likely to donate their own money to less wealthy individuals, as well as take from wealthier participants.

In the vast majority of societies such a mechanism is not legally available to individuals, and so the behavior is considered criminal.  But people still commonly commit the crime.  The piracy of software, movies and other intellectual property is often attributed to individuals' rationalization that they are redistributing wealth.  Any petty theft might be attributed to this rationalization.

There is a degree of irony in the fact that the laws preventing Robin Hood like behavior are absolute. Protection of our right to property is intended to to promote social stability.  Yet the absolute interpretation of this right has denied society's tendency toward egalitarianism, and often results in major conflicts and instability.  Look at any one of the hundreds of "mineral wars" - Angola and Ivory Coast come to mind.  Even the labor disputes involving Wal Mart are manifestations of the conflict between the corporation's enforced right to dominate a market and the desire to equalize.

Does our egalitarian tendency need a more central role in society?  Given the increasing inequality of wealth distribution and resulting conflicts, is it time to reexamine our right to property in a more global and sustainable context?  How would the rights of corporations be different?

Agile LCA, or, How Communities Can Influence What Happens Downstream

The role of Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) in measuring impact of consumer behavior is problematic due to its reliance on very extensive amounts of data.  However, there may be a more efficient and meaningful way to understand the impact of a product though structured engagement of the community of producers and consumers in a transparent and objective dialog about the product.

In a 2006 article , Reid Lifset of Yale University cites problems with LCA stemming from "the tension between speed, cost and intelligibility on the one hand and comprehensiveness and rigor on the other."  For supply chain managers and consumers alike, the full analysis of any product or brand is inevitably too expensive, complex and time consuming to undertake.  This situation has led to the proposal of SLCA (Steamlined LCA) in which 80% of the insights obtained through LCA can be realized with perhaps 20% of the cost and effort.

The article appears in a Special Issue of the International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment honoring Helias Udo de Haes, one of the key figures in Environmental Sciences, and a pioneer of  Life Cycle Analysis.  Haes himself has noted the difficulty associated with the extensive data collection and imperfect data classification that is characteristic of LCA, thereby contributing to the perception that formal LCA is largely an academic discipline that will likely never find its way into mainstream economic activity.

This is not to say that LCA does not have a role in the economy. Value in partial or S LCA can be realized by producers who look for relevance to their business in the body of work that led to ISO 14040 and related methodology.  But that value could be superseded by a more agile method that relies on a community of motivated collaborators focused on revealing the most significant factors relating to  environmental and social impact.

Another shortcoming of current LCA practice, which was not cited in the article, is that it does not  directly involve end consumers.  The consumer's personal experience and observations about the product are not accounted for, yet for the class of products purchased, transported, operated, stored, and used up by consumers, such data can be very useful in a broader analysis of product impact.

Accepting that the single largest driver of product design is that of consumer demand, then product impact analysis should be focused on a desire of the consumer to understand the impact of their consumer behavior. This is not a universal desire of consumers, but it certainly exists within a growing class of conscious consumers who are woefully underserved in this respect.  I estimate that this desire is sufficient to be a strong economic force once it is tapped effectively.

In this context, a collective impact analysis, even if it's only a partial inventory of impacts compiled by observant consumers, may be enough to change downstream consumer behavior in such a way as to influence the producer toward a more  sustainable design.   A basic MIPS analysis, for example, would be useful to discerning consumers who want to understand impact of their purchases.

Further, in the present economic view of worker as consumer, a meaningful, if less rigorous, analysis might be possible if performed by the consuming public. Mechanisms have been proposed for enabling consumers to share their knowledge of a product's impact. In cases where the consumers are themselves the producers, this model can lead to very specific and accurate data about a product's impact.

Related approaches are coming online as we speak: 

  • The Environmentally Preferred Product Purchasing Tool, a project by Earthster.org, was announced just last week.  It focuses on professional buyers' need to understand impacts in the management of their supply chains.  The tool allows for the buyers themselves to add their own data to the profile of a product.
  • The Reveal rating system is a system currently under development to codify the impact analysis in a consumer useful way.

Approaches like these, combined with consumer driven analysis in a participatory network forum could lead to improved awareness of product impact at the point of purchase, ultimately influencing producers much more efficiently than proper LCA.

What is the business model behind such a community driven consumer resource?  How can investment be attracted to the development of this model?

CommunityNext - a Glimpse into the Future

<p><p><p><p><p><p><p><p><p><p>Community Next, Saturday February 10, 2007,  Stanford University</p></p></p></p></p></p></p></p></p></p>

If the folks present at the CommunityNext conference last weekend have anything to say about it, the wisdom of crowds will dominate our future.  This emerging industry alternately known as Social Networking and Online Communities,  has produced some of the most compelling modes of interaction available to society.  And we're only just beginning to understand the significance of, what can only be called, a major social movement.

Sun Microsystems, who sponsored the event, is perhaps the most visible and largest commercial enterprise to declare its support and integral role in advancing the build out of Social Networking.  Sun anticipated the importance of this movement to its business model by proffering that the Age of Participation is upon us and the build out of IT infrastructure to make it possible will be led by the companies that operate as online communities and understand what it means to belong to the network.

Here are my telegraphic notes from the event:


Community Next, Saturday February 10, 2007,  Stanford University

Organizer: Noah Kagan

  • ~ Brand Utopia
    • Rules
      • Change the world
      • Do something you care about
      • Do something worth talking about
    • "I wanna be part of the carbon neutral network"
      • "How do I get credit for using efficient servers?"
  • ~ Citizen Agency, Tara Hunt
    • Rules of enagement
      • community != marketing strategy
        • cluetrain
      • Think like a customer
      • 10 ways to shift your thinking
        • 1. become a community evangelist
          • (reverse of corporate evangelist)
        • 2. shift your measures of 'success'
          • e.g., GPI (not GDP)
        • 3. embrace the chaos
          • e.g., barcamp
        • 4. find your higher purpose
        • 5. understand who you're building that app for
        • 6. INreach, not outreach
          • e.g., twitter
        • 7. design to delight
        • 8. be part of the community you serve
        • 9. have respect
        • 10. have patience
  • ~ DIY Tools, Rohit Bhargava
  • Say Now
    • Voice messages
      • Artist to Fan
      • Fan to artist
      • Fan to fan
  • mPulse media
    • mobile social networking
  • ~ loopt
    • social mapping (geographic)
      • most common text msg: "W U @?"
      • "enhancing serendipity"
      • enabled by location APIs and security, privacy problems solved
      • launched on boost mobile
      • 6 invites per user
      • $2.99/mo.
  • social community demos
  • ~ dogster
    • community guidelines
      • define early
      • enforce them
      • cite them when enforcing
    • core components
      • entertainment
      • information
      • sociality
        • e.g., give a bone
      • services
    • stay w/in your impact horizon
      • don't look too far out
    • tips
      • start w/ less rules, apply more as needed
      • be evolutionary - get feedback
      • skip version releases, favor small responsive changes
    • revenue streams
      • sponsors
        • get the first one!
        • you're never too small
        • can provide gowth capital
        • caution! sponsors don't scale well
      • direct ad buys
      • premium memberships
      • bulk ads
    • circle of trust: dogster-community-advertisers
    • brand campaign
      • be picky - find the right advertisers
      • build campaigns that bring advertiser intot he community
      • don't be deceptive, ever!
      • write your advertiser's copy
      • think beyond banners, find the right place to position their message
    • creative commons attribution
  • ~ skinnyCorp, Jeffrey Kalmikoff & Jake Nickel (Chicago)
    • Four Commandments
      • allow your content to be created by its community
      • put your project in the hands of its community
      • let your community grow itself
      • reward the community that makes your project possible
    • projects
      • naked & angry
        • fashion based on tile patterns upload
      • Extra Tasty
        • drink recipes
        • example of "Your Project is Not Good Enough"
      • poopface
      • yayhooray
      • threadless - Nude No More
      • ~ threadless
        • sold > 1M tshirts
    • raised $100K for Katrina via tshirt designed by employee
  • ~ big in japan, Jake McKee
    • support vs. monetization
    • everybody goes home happy
      • 1. redefine success
      • 2. share.  a lot
      • 4. skip NDA
      • 5. set & maintain expectations
      • 6. train your collegues
  • ~ indieclick, Heather Luttrell
    • top ten myths
      • 1. if we build it they will come
      • 2. members won't cost us anything
      • 3. bandwidth is cheap and won't cost anything more as we grow
      • 4. we can add ad space to the design after we have built and audience
      • 5. our audience won't accept ads
      • 6. ads will look terrible
      • 7. direct sales (or indirect) will sell all our ads
      • 8. we need detailed data to manage ad sales
      • 9. we are getting thousands of hits each day, surely they are worth some ad dollars
      • 10. advertising is our only source of revenue
    • lessons learned
      • designate a community manager

        create an area for advertising discussion

        seek advertisers in your niche

        be willing to customer for advertisers

        con't insist on the highest CPMs

        be lexible - timeframes may slip, creative implementation may be complicated and campaigns may be cancelled

        expect to have advertisers closely monitor delivery

        • fresh content drives traffic
        • newsletters allow you to drive traffic weekly
        • you can fund a mktg campaign from ad revenue
    • 2007 trends
      • tier 1 advertisers getting involved in niche sites
      • non-traditional advertiseing (custom implementations/sponsorships)
      • featured content/video/editorial?
      • UGC and advertising (the consumer-created commercial
      • rich media e.g., expandable banners
      • video
  • ~ claimID, Fred Stutzman
    • Key Concepts
      • privacy is weird
        • 19% sharing with friends
        • 27% sharing with faculty
        • 29% sharing staff
        • privacy is changing
      • utility is important
        • situational relevance
          • many networks - primary and secondary
          • networks are constantly in flux
          • move in to new networks for actual information needs
          • facebook, last.fm (singles bar metaphor: audiences move on, but biz survives)
        • social objects
          • flickr
            • cats in sinks
          • del.icio.us
        • objects provide a shared solcial experience
      • value is granular
        • see metcalfe's law
        • social communities offer a rich experience - more than a binary
        • understand value creation - what's initial value vs. how much value is added by the community?
    • Takeaways
      • respect privacy expectations
      • niche into situational relevance
      • leverage social objects
      • understand the network's multiplier